The #NFL is Quarterback starved, that's for sure. The monkey wrench thrown into the negotiations with Brock Osweiler and the #Broncos is that in the last couple of days guys like Sam Bradford in Philly and Cousins in Washington have gotten contracts for 2016 representing an obscene amount of money (in excess of $19 million) for the level of talent they posses and the mediocrity they have shown.
However Osweiler doesn't quite compare to either of those QBs. In his case he has 7 starts in 4 years. A very difficult situation to evaluate. In years past it would have been pretty clear cut, his worth would not be overstated, but the state of the starting QB in the NFL is poor right now. There are many teams starved for a quality QB.
Having said that, I don't believe there are many teams, if any, who would throw Cousins' type of money at Osweiler. Because all of those teams with a desperate need at QB have top 20, 1st round, draft picks. Why pay all this money to an unproven QB when you can just draft your own and develop him at a relative bargain price for 5 years? I know I wouldn't do that in their position, but there is always that slight chance that one team (maybe the Texans) has a desperate GM who makes a bad decision and decides to offer a ridiculous contract to Brock. If that happens, the #Broncos would let him walk. Elway would never pay Osweiler in 2016 the kind of money Peyton Manning was making when he was the NFL MVP in 2013! And he shouldn't.
What I know with relative certainty is that the #Broncos have evaluated Osweiler's value at somewhere in between Nick Foles' contract with the Rams and Andy Dalton's contract in Cincy. Those contracts are $12 million per year for Foles and $16 million per year for Dalton. The #Broncos have offered somewhere north of $12 million per year to Osweiler. Just how much over no one knows, but it's definitely over $12 million and under $16 million. My guess is it's a lot closer to the $12 million number than the $16 million. That is a more than fair, and actually more than he deserves at this point in his career contract.
If it weren't for the unusual dynamics I have described above, I believe Brock would have already signed this deal. But he is going to wait at least until Monday the 7th when the tampering period begins and his agent can legally speak to other teams for 2 days before free agency begins to gauge the interest and the value for him in the open market before a decision to sign is made.
Free agency officially begins on Wednesday the 9th. If Brock hits the open market at that time, chances of getting him back in Denver diminish significantly. I still believe that Brock will end up signing with the #Broncos on March 8th and stay. I don't believe he is keen on the idea of playing elsewhere. But, again, that could only change if a team offers him a crazy $16 to $19 million per year contract. Any one would be hard pressed to walk away from that! And he would not either. We'll see what happens soon enough.
If all goes as planned, or as Elway would say "plan A", Osweiler will be the starting QB for the #Broncos in 2016. But what if he moves on, what is plan B?
Elway is one GM not afraid to take risks. He is the one guy who will not overpay for a player and has the confidence he'll figure it out, especially at the QB position. And in this case the same is true on this issue.
The #Broncos are very high on Trevor Siemian and would not hesitate to go into the offseason ready to get a QB battle going for a new starter. I believe if Osweiler leaves, the #Broncos would make a push for a veteran, in my opinion that veteran would be Colin Kaepernick as their 1st choice and some others such as Case Keenum, TJ Yates or even maybe RGIII if Kaepernick is not available. And they will also draft a QB either with their 1st or 2nd round pick of the draft and let the 3 QBs duke it out for the starting position in OTAs and training camp.
As for Manning, I stand by my contention that regardless of what Peyton decides about his retirement, he is done in Denver and the #Broncos are moving on no matter what.
Can't wait to see this all unfold next week! Let's go #Broncos.
#BroncosCountry
#InElwayWeTrust
- Michael Salavati
#MichaelSalavati
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