Back by popular demand, The Denver Broncos vs the Carolina Panthers by the numbers SB50 Edition:
This is a real tough matchup to break down because there is little history between the 2 teams. I wanted to also give you a lot of fun history and tidbits, plus breakdown some of the game for you all in one shot. So there will be a lot of info on this post. But this is the Super bowl, it warrants information overload! So here we go…
The Panthers and Broncos have played 4 times since 1997. The Broncos hold the series matchup at 3 wins 1 loss. The Broncos, as the home team, are 2-0 and 1-1 away at Carolina. Technically, the Broncos are considered the home team at #SB50 .
The most recent matchup was in November 2012 on a game played at Carolina. Peyton Manning and company put a beating on the Panthers that day winning 36-14. Peyton Manning passed for 27 of 38, 301 Yards, 1TD and 0 INTs. That game represents the only matchup to date between the two QBs.
Perhaps the most encouraging stat line from that 2012 matchup is the Broncos defensive numbers: They held Cam Newton to 21 of 36 for 241 Yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs and wait for it…. An incredible 7 sacks! Yes, the mobile Cam was shadowed by Von Miller the entire game and was sacked 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 times. Now this year’s Panthers team and Cam Newton are a far better team & QB than their 2012 version (They finished at a 7-9 record that year). But the formula for containing Cam is still very similar and the Broncos maybe the only team in the 2015 NFL season with the player personnel and coaching staff to do it. More on that in a moment...
Digging deep: As a head coach or an assistant coach, Gary Kubiak has faced the Panthers 5 times in his career while with the Broncos, Texans and Ravens. He has a dominant 4-1 record vs Carolina.
Panthers head coach Ron Rivera has appeared in 5 playoff games with a 3-2 record. He has 3 Divisional Championships never having won a Conference Title until this year. This is his 1st Super Bowl appearance since becoming the Head Coach for Carolina in 2011. As a team this is the Panthers 2nd Super Bowl appearance having lost to the Patriots in SB XXXVIII 32-29, in the 2003 season. In contrast this is the Broncos 8th Super Bowl appearance (Tied for the most in the NFL with the Pats, Steelers & Cowboys) and their 2nd in 3 seasons. The Broncos unfortunately already own the most SB losses record by a team at 5, but with a win they will join an elite group of only 9 teams with 3 SB victories.
For the superstitious: You should’ve already heard that the Broncos will be wearing their white uniforms which were the uniforms they wore the last time they won a Super Bowl in the 1998 season against the Falcons. They had worn their orange unis vs the Seahawks in 2013 and are 0-4 in SB appearances in their orange jerseys. Two things you may not know is that the Panthers will be in their dark uniforms and have never won a playoff game with them and teams wearing white uniforms have won 10 out of the last 11 Super Bowls.
Peyton Manning was heard telling Coach Belichick, after the game, that “this might be my last rodeo”. His actions after the AFC Championship game were of a man who was consciously soaking in every moment and experience of that win and all its glory. Even down to bringing his son to the postgame podium which he has never done before. To me he is fully aware of what this upcoming SB50 game means to him on a very deep and emotional level. I expect to see a Peyton Manning with a heightened sense of urgency and motivation on game day and a man who will be ready to give every ounce of effort he can possibly give. It will be something truly special and very emotional for me to witness as I am sure it will be for every true Broncos fan out there. We are so blessed to be able to witness this firsthand in our lifetime as fans for these sorts of legendary stories are typically only ones you read about and not ones actually experienced.
This is the first ever Super Bowl matchup between quarterbacks who were drafted No. 1 overall.
The 2 superstars highlighted in SB50 are undoubtedly Cam Newton and Von Miller. The two All-Pros were the #1 overall and #2 overall draft picks in the 2011 draft class respectively.
Broncos LG Evan Mathis was actually drafted by the Panthers in 2005. He remains as the only player on either team to have actually played for both teams.
Some notable Broncos star players playing in their first Super Bowl ever: Demarcus Ware, Von Miller, Chris Harris Jr., Owen Daniels, Derek Wolfe, Evan Mathis, and T. J. Ward.
Add three more records for Peyton Manning: He is the only player in NFL history to go to the SB 4 times with 4 different head coaches. He is also the oldest QB ever with a SB appearance surpassing John Elway’s distinction by 1 year and 103 days. And he is the only NFL QB to lead multiple teams (2) to multiple Super Bowls each (2).
After a turnover-laden regular season for Peyton, He threw 0 interceptions in the 2 Playoff games this season leading to SB50. He had never played in any Playoff games without throwing at least 1 INT until this year. He has also never thrown multiple TDs in any of his previous SB games, a trend he will also break in SB50. I Promise!
The Denver Broncos defense is ranked as the #1 overall in the league for the 1st time in Broncos team history. Teams with the #1 overall defensive ranking have a 9-2 winning record in the Super Bowl and if it weren’t for a judgement lapse on the Seahawks' coaching staff not running Beast Mode for a one yard TD late in the 4th quarter in last year’s SB, that record would stand at 10-1.
As an NFL coach (Defensive Coordinator for the Bears), Panthers Head Coach Ron Rivera has lost in the Super Bowl once before in the 2006 season. Ironically that loss came at the hands of Peyton Manning as a Colt beating the Bears 29-17 on Feb. 4th, 2007.
The Panthers have incredibly rushed for at least 100 yards in 31 straight games. If you read my Patriots matchup breakdown you know that I predicted a defensive game plan of a 3 to a maximum 4-man rush dropping 7 or 8 into coverage. The reason was because the Pats, as were the 2013 Broncos, are a prolific offensive team because of their potent passing attack. All their offensive stars are heavily tilted in the passing phase of the game. As it turned out Wade Phillips did exactly that. Prior to the Pats game, in 17 weeks, this defense had only rushed with 3 linemen 14 times. Against the Pats, Phillips dialed a three man rush 14 times matching the entire season high.
For this SB50 game however, the Panthers are also a prolific offensive team perhaps even more so than the Pats except they are the polar opposite of the Patriots. They are a run heavy & run first team with average WR talent. They are ranked the #2 running offense in the League. Even their QB is a huge running threat. So the defensive scheme, in my opinion, should be the exact opposite of last week. Here’s my thoughts on a defensive game plan:
- Rush 4 to 5 linemen at a minimum at all times.
- Play man-to-man coverage with WRs exclusively. Their best WR is Ted Ginn Jr. with 10 TDs on the season. Prior to this season, Ginn was at best a journeyman with only 11 TDs in 120 games played from 2007 to 2014. Our top tier 3 CBs can handle the Panthers WRs one-on-one without help all day.
- Play the LBs close to the line of scrimmage always having a minimum 7 (if possible 8) men in the box to stop the run 1st and dare Cam Newton to beat you deep up top against your 3 CB stars.
- Utilize a spy on Cam to keep him from getting long running yardage on broken down plays.
- Make sure the front 7 plays disciplined and stays in their rush lanes to keep Cam in the pocket, forcing him to throw from the pocket and not on the run where he is deadly. They have to play “gap control” on the D-Line. They have to play “big” and “physical”.
- Lastly and as always avoid costly penalties that give automatic 1st downs to the opponent that keep drives alive. Get them off the field and dominate 3rd downs.
All of that is easier said than done. But the Broncos are the only team in my opinion in the NFL equipped with the personnel and coaches to make that game plan not only possible but a successful reality.
Best vs best: The Broncos defense allowed an NFL best 3.28 yards per rushing attempt this season. They were also ranked 3rd best in rushing yards allowed per game at 83.6 yards. Those stats are most relative because the Panthers offense is the NFL’s 2nd best ranked team in rushing yards per game at 142.6 yards. The Panthers offense as a unit is ranked #16 overall and as you know the Broncos defense is the #1 overall ranked unit. The Broncos also lead the league with 59 sacks, including 7 this post-season. This game, as all other previous games this season, comes down to the defense vs their offense. I like our chances.
The Panthers are one of 13 active NFL teams to have never won a Super Bowl World Championship.
5 NFL teams since 1967 have won their Conference Championship games by a 30 or more points margin. Only 2 went on to win the Super Bowl. The Panthers beat Arizona in the NFC Championship game last week by 34 points.
Defense wins Championships: The Panthers lead the NFL in 2015 in scoring offense. Yet in NFL history teams with the #1 scoring offenses are 10-9 all-time in the Super Bowl, including the 2013 loss by the Broncos. Even more relative, the last 5 highest scoring offenses are only 1-4 in the Super Bowl.
The Panthers led the NFL in turnover differential (plus 20), takeaways (39) and points off takeaways (148) this season. They devastated the Cardinals offense by forcing 6 turnovers last week, with Carson Palmer throwing 4 INTs. Offensively the Broncos number one duty is to play turnover free football. A recipe they have mastered this postseason. As we have said a million times this season, this Broncos team's identity is the defense and not Peyton Manning. And that’s how they will win this game as well. The offense only needs to take the plays the Panthers defense gives them, be patient and make enough plays eventually to score 27 points. Whether those plays come via the run or pass is irrelevant. Just take what is given and put together long, methodical and draining drives together. This is a game-plan that fits their personnel like a glove.
Strength of schedule: The Panthers had an impressive 15-1 regular season record. Outside of the 2 postseason matchups, let’s take a look at all of their 2015 opponents. Their opponent’s win-loss record at the time of their matchup is presented in parenthesis:
Jaguars (0-1), Texans (0-2), Saints (0-3), Buccaneers (1-3), Seahawks (2-4), Eagles (3-4), Colts (3-5), Packers (6-2), Titans (2-7), Redskins (4-6), Cowboys (3-8), Saints again (4-8), falcons (6-7), Giants (6-8), Falcons again (8-7) and Bucs again (6-10). As you can see, with the exception of the Packers, who were free falling and in the midst of a 2-game losing streak at the time, and their 2nd game with the Falcons (Which represents their only loss!), none of their other 14 regular season opponents had a winning record! In contrast, the #Broncos had one of the league’s toughest schedules playing 7 of the 12 Playoff teams in the regular season, playing 3 of them (The Chiefs, Steelers and the Patriots) twice.
In Conclusion:
The Panthers are a juggernaut. Cam Newton is the NFL MVP. But as a team they have not been really tested. They haven’t faced adversity. In NFL relative terms, they have had it as easy as is possible. They haven’t needed to deal with major injuries, turmoil, and comeback wins. They have mostly blown out their opponents. They are Super Bowl inexperienced. There is no telling how a team reacts to the big lights. How they react once they find themselves in unfamiliar territory down by a score late in the game. Or at a dog fight at halftime. It’s all fun and games in winning, what happens if you’re losing? Can you keep cool, calm and collective? Is Cam seasoned or mature enough in those situations? Are the Panthers?
The Broncos on the other hand have been here before, just a short 2 years ago. They were the high powered juggernaut offense. They did blow out everyone they met in-route to the Super Bowl. They were the national media darlings and favorites to win it all. And they did get punched in the gut! They know how that feels. They have battled and clawed all year, winning an #NFL record 12 games by a score of a TD or less. They’ve had to come back in the 4th quarter, deal with major injuries and many adversities. They are mature and have leadership who is too.
They have answered Elway’s call of “Kicking and Screaming” in a text book, made for Hollywood fashion. They are motivated not only by self but are playing for something bigger. They are playing for their teammates. They are playing for Peyton and for Ware. They are forged by fate into a team. They know their appointment with their objective, and its pending finality. These emotions cannot be scripted, manufactured or taught. They cannot be planned or controlled. They cannot be easily explained in worldly terms for they are unseen and unforeseen. They are a result of comradery, history, trial, time and destiny. They are legends. No man can stand in the way of legends for their way is the way of inevitability. And the Broncos are ready to answer the call of their destiny and become legendary.
- Michael Salavati
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